Market Condition: The ongoing correction continues; we continue to make new lows on a weekly basis despite a few rally attempts. At the same time, we might have started a bottoming process, but the volatility will continue for a bit more time. Anyone referring to the past month’s plunge in U.S. stocks as a crash has history on their side. The S&P 500 Index’s volatility for the 10 trading days ended Wednesday was 122%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Only two periods have produced higher readings: the aftermath of the 1929 Black Tuesday crash and the 1987 Black Monday crash. The volatility gauge climbed more than 17-fold from Feb. 19, when the S&P 500’s latest bull market ended, through Wednesday. Until the volatility decreases it is unlikely that we get a sustained uptrend. There are many things that canbe discussed at this time, but I would just like to point out a few important points.
The recent drop in prices was mostly unprecedented and it is most likely that the bulk of panic selling has occurred. The market has priced in about a 50-80% drop in corporate profits. Which most likely is overdone. If this were true this would be worse than 2008, which had some real problems lead by collapses in housing, banking, auto sales and credit markets which lasted 18 months at this time corporate profits were down 46%. At some point when more data starts coming out markets will calm down.
At the start of this year, the economy was very strong in January and February, March data started coming in weaker, estimates for 2nd quarter GDP (due to worldwide economic shutdown due to Corona virus fears) are anywhere from -5 to -10%. However, a pick-up after this is expected.
A pickup is expected most likely due to the fact that as testing for Corona virus gets underway, we will get “peak” cases. This always happens as testing expands from real cases and frontline health care workers to suspected cases and the general population. The expanded testing starts to dilute out the infection rate. We have already seen this currently in Asian countries, and in the past in other historic outbreaks, Swine Flu 2009, Sars 2003, Bird Flu 1968, Bird Flu 1957, and the 1918 Pandemic.
We keep hearing about 20-60% infection rate, however looking at data from South Korea which did extensive testing, at this point has about a 3% infection rate, and even in the US so far the rate is 9.2% , it appears unlikely we hit that 60% infection rate, for reason mentioned above.
Looking at all these historic outbreaks, we might focus on the Bird Flu 1957 (H2N2 virus) (since the first quarter of 1958 the GDP dropped -10%.) The Bird Flu broke out in Singapore February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and coastal US in summer of 1957. In 1957-1958 CDC estimates that the flu pandemic killed 1.1 million people globally 116,000 in the United States. The markets actually rallied from February lows of 1957 15% higher into July 1957, where it peaked, then dropped 20.4% it then traded along the bottoms in a volatile fashion from October 1957, to about April 1958, then rallied 64% until September 1959. The importance here is that the GDP in 4th quarter of 1957 was -4%, and the first quarter of 1958 was a -10%. This period coincided with the market slide. The market started trending up in April 1958 right after that first quarter.
There is a strong effort to combat this virus as vaccine tests are already being conducted, and existing drugs are being tested which already proving to be at least partially working to help keep people alive.
The Government is doing lots of things to keep the economy alive, the Fed cut rates to zero, also making lines of credit available and basically a trillion-dollar bailout package.
Addendum from our Portfolio Manager, Chris: Eventually, this danger will subside, and America will return to the norm, which is an environment in which many of America’s great companies have thrived. So, investors should keep this in mind. Currently, companies such as Boeing, Disney, Expedia, and Chevron are trading as if they will no longer grow over the long term or will eventually go out of business. This is highly unlikely. Aeronautics, entertainment, leisure, and travel will be mainstays of American life well into the future. So when the norm returns to American life, investors will find that this was an opportunity for those who were able to preserve capital, and then put it to work when the time was right.–Chris Chiu, Portfolio Manager.
In Summary, expect terrible economic numbers in the 2nd Quarter, followed with a subsequent pickup in the economy and the stock market.
Faced with uncertainty we already recommended on 2/28/20 that 401k investors and our other clients decease their equity exposure. Take 20% to 50% of your holdings and make sure they are already in, or move them to a safe holding.
At CrossPoint Wealth, LLC we are evaluating and making changes to our holdings as we see necessary. We are very comfortable with holding onto our dividend generating securities, but will continue to look for opportunities to raise cash or put to work when ready.
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